Onward Bulletin 16.02.2021
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Onward activity
NEW EVENT: On 8th March. our Director Will Tanner will sit down with Douglas Ross MP, Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party, to discuss the state of the Union. You can register via Zoom here.
BUDGET BRIEFING: The week before the Budget, on 23 February, we are giving a preview of the big choices facing Rishi Sunak with an expert panel: Blackrock’s Rupert Harrison, former Cabinet Minister Rt Hon David Gauke and Bloomberg’s Lizzy Burden to discuss the Chancellor’s choices, political priorities and wider economic agenda ahead of March 3rd. Register here.
IN THE NEWS: Onward’s Director, Will Tanner, and Deputy Director, Will Holloway, wrote for Conservative Home and The Times last week on the renewed case for industrial strategy following the vaccine success.
If there was ever doubt that the SNP is myopic about Scottish independence, the weekend offered final confirmation.
On Sunday the SNP Constitution Secretary, Michael Russell, announced he will press ahead with legislation for a new independence referendum within six weeks. Scots will probably still be in lockdown, Scottish ICUs will still be struggling, and the vast majority of the population will still be waiting for a vaccine. But not even a global pandemic can seemingly broaden the SNP's tunnel vision.
Unionists should remember this is only partly about Scottish Independence. It is also about the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon knows that there is nothing better for her chances of a majority than for the issue of independence to rise in salience among voters, who tend to opt for the party who they agree with most on the biggest issue of the day.
It also helpfully distracts from the division over the Alex Salmond trial which is seeping from the top of party into the wider nationalist cause. Recent polling for The Scotsman revealed support for "Yes" had fallen four points to 53% when Don't Knows were excluded. Nearly one in two Scots (45%) think the SNP is divided. A row with Whitehall may stop the bleeding.
But the most basic truth is that this is the First Minister's most favourable territory. Publishing before May could tempt the UK Government to dismiss the possibility of a vote just before the election, boosting the SNP's chances of a majority. Even if it doesn't it will make it harder for Unionists to say that Scots return the SNP with their eyes open about what it meant.
The only viable response for the UK Government is not a response at all but a pre-emptive strike. As soon as possible, the Prime Minister should say, firmly but respectfully, that now is really, really not the time. Not when hundreds of thousands are out of work or on furlough, when families are grieving and people are battling for their lives, not when the NHS is facing its toughest ever moment.
No one is denying the SNP their chance to make their case. But there is a time and a place. And most Scots are not in a hurry. Only around one in five of all voters want one within two years and one in ten of the SNP's own supporters do not want another vote within five years. Even if a majority of Scots now flirt with independence, there is no evidence to suggest they think now is the time to decide.
If the SNP still want to press on, after being implored not to, then so be it. But let's make sure they have to defend spending time, energy, money and political capital on the independence debate right now at a time when we have so many other reasons to spend them on.
Policy Bites
The Government has announced a new £10m green finance research centre ahead of this year’s COP26. Link.
The Bank of England plans to change bank capital rules in a break from the EU. Link.
The Education Secretary intends to fine universities that are deemed to no-platform, dismiss, or demote people over their views. Link.
Quick Links
The cost of independence. LSE research finds that Scottish independence would cost the Scottish economy up to three times as much in lost trade as Brexit. Link.
High streets with a view? Stockton-on-Tees plans to replace a shopping centre with a riverside oasis. Link.
The new geography of jobs. New research finds significant heterogeneity in the spatial impact of working from home. Link.
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